No Immigration Vote in 2013 Spells Trouble for the GOP in 2014 regarding rising Hispanic voters.
Looks like RNC Chairman Reince Priebus and Speaker Boehner didn’t get the memo regarding NATIONAL GENERAL ELECTION POLL ON IMMIGRATION ISSUES IN REPUBLICAN-HELD COMPETITIVE CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS.
According to the research findings, inaction by GOP in swing districts will more than likely cost them their seats. Since its founding in 2001, Basswood Research has conducted survey research in every state and in hundreds of congressional districts and local communities. Its founder and principal, Jon Lerner, has been recognized by Roll Call, National Journal, the Washington Post and others as one of the leading Republican pollsters in the nation. Basswood has helped elect more than two dozen U.S. Senators, Members of Congress, and Governors, including leading conservatives such as Senators Tom Coburn, Pat Toomey, and Tim Scott. It has served as pollster for leading conservative advocacy groups such as the Club for Growth. And it has conducted surveys for the national Republican Party committees at the RGA, the NRSC, and the NRCC.
Here is what the memo states:
Methodology
On November 2-3, 2013, Basswood Research conducted a survey of likely general election voters in 20 congressional districts. These districts are widely viewed as the 20 most competitive ones currently held by Republican incumbents. The districts surveyed were: CA-10, CA-21, CO-6, FL-2, FL-10, IA-3, IL-13, IN-2, MI-1, MI-7, MI-11, MN-2, NE-2, NV-3, NY-11, NY-19, NY-23, OH-6, OH-14, PA-8. The survey was conducted by live professional interviewers by telephone. The overall sample size was 1000, with a margin of error of +/- 3.1%, at a 95% confidence interval. Each district contributed 50 interviews to the sample; as such, data in individual districts is much less reliable.
Key Findings
• Voters in key Republican districts are highly dissatisfied with political leadership in Washington across-the-board.
President Obama’s job approval rating is poor, with 41% approving and 58% disapproving. “Democrats in Congress” fare even worse, with 34% approving, and 63% disapproving. But it is “Republicans in Congress” who are in the worst shape in these Republican districts, with 27% approving and 70% disapproving of their job performance.
• Voters in key Republican districts want action on immigration reform.
Fixing the current immigration system is rated as “very important” by 70% of voters in these districts. An additional 23% rate action on immigration reform as “somewhat important.” Only 5% rate immigration reform as either “not very important” or “not at all important.”
• Voters prefer an imperfect immigration solution to no solution.
When given a choice between leaving the current immigration system the way it is, and “passing new laws that are not perfect, but do attempt to fix the serious flaws in the current system,” voters choose imperfect solutions over the status quo by a massive 77%-15% margin. That includes 67% of voters who consider themselves “very conservative,” and 72% of registered or affiliated Republicans.
The major elements of the comprehensive immigration reform proposals being considered in Congress have widespread support in these key Republican districts.
E-Verify: 80% support; 13% oppose
Dream Act: 78% support; 16% oppose
Earned pathway to citizenship for undocumented: 71% support; 21% oppose
Increasing fines for employers who hire 72% support; 23% oppose
Undocumented immigrants:
Increasing border patrol and border fencing: 67% support; 24% oppose
Increasing high tech legal immigration: 62% support; 30% oppose
• The combination of enhanced border security and pathway to citizenship represents a consensus position.
When presented with three options regarding the interconnection between border security to prevent future illegal immigration and citizenship for those who are presently in the country and undocumented, the following responses were found:
17% oppose a pathway to citizenship under all circumstances;
26% favor a pathway to citizenship even without any increase in border security;
50% favor a pathway to citizenship if it also includes substantially increased border security.
76% favor a pathway to citizenship, with or without enhanced border security.
• The partisan composition of these 20 districts favors Republicans.
By party registration/affiliation, respondents in this survey were 39% Republican, 35% Democratic, and 23% Independent. The generic party preference for Congress was +6.7 points Republican.
What does this mean for Mexican American Hispanic Voters and the Latino Community?
It could mean Republicans in the House of Representatives will lose their power and majority seats in 2014 possibly getting a sweeter deal with a combined Democratic-controlled House and Senate.
If Priebus thinks he can woo the Hispanic voters in 2014 / 2016 with mere words, he’s got another think coming because what we see is the GOP ruining a good Thanksgiving / Christmas Season in 2013 — thus making it easy to ruin theirs come November 2014. We are witnessing their stall and delay tactics which will remain fresh in our Mexican American 2014 minds if they don’t fix the broken immigration system in 2013.
We have the votes now that will fix the broken immigration system that would only enhance our national and economic security. According to Rep. Nancy Pelosi, we have the legal comprehensive immigration reform (CIR) votes with 190 cosponsors on H.R.15 and 28 Republicans vowing support.
